For nearly two years, the future of law seemed written: artificial intelligence would supplement and maybe even, one day, supplant legal professionals. But how certain is that future?

In an op-ed in Bloomberg Law, Roy Strom writes that "law firm leaders and technology experts in the legal space, like amped up investors, are adjusting their near-term expectations. More are acknowledging that today’s AI tools are better at boosting back-office efficiency rather than redesigning how client work is handled. That takes the steam out of predicting a future without associates."

Melissa Sawyer, global head of Sullivan & Cromwell's mergers and acquisitions team, added that “the tools that are available are not that reliable yet, and the accuracy ratings are not great. …The more complex deal work involves judgment, experience and creativity and the AI just isn’t there yet.”

In a Law.com analysis, reporter Justin Henry notes that Big Law firms may slow their adoption of AI as a way to preserve their profits.

"Law firms stand to lose some of the profitability of their leverage model by using generative AI, since it’s being used to automate work traditionally handled by timekeepers lower in the law firm hierarchy," Henry writes.

And Kris Satkunas of LexusNexus CounselLink seems to agree, saying “that pressure is there on law firms if billable hours are reduced, especially given the more junior lawyers who drive leverage and have the biggest profit margin,” Satkunas continued. “That would put a dent on profitability of law firms. But it’s on law firms to plan ahead with staffing models and use of alternative fee arrangements.”

How fast and how complete the transition to AI-driven legal departments will be remains uncertain. David Cambria of Epiq cites FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) as the two forces to balance during this period of transition. “Success comes by managing the change through those," he told Bloomberg Law, and suggested firms and legal teams place "bets on technologies across functions from the back-office to custom-built tools."

Verdict

Large firms and legal departments should never remake their organizations based on trends and hype cycles, but the era of AI has begun (much like the Internet era that arrived in the late '90s). As operations are studied and processes analyzed for their amenability to AI, care should be taken to ensure any implementation is done correctly and solidly.

‍